100 Million Confirmed: Novel Coronavirus Rampant and Virus Tracing

Abstract: Due to the statistical caliber, statistical errors and the lack of timely and universal nucleic acid detection, the actual cases in the world have already exceeded 100 million, and tens of millions of new crown positive cases have not been counted, diagnosed in time, and treated in time and self-healing.
More and more information, evidence and research from countries indicate that the SARS-CoV-2 virus has been distributed in many places around the world in 2019, and there may be more than one zero case, but a multicenter outbreak.

One year into the new global pandemic, the turning point and end point are still unclear.
The winter epidemic in the northern hemisphere is making a big comeback and falling into deep darkness. The urgent use of vaccine is unlikely to dawn soon. It still faces the “four big tests” of virus spread, virus mutation, virus origin tracing and virus vaccine.

Virus epidemic: 100 million confirmed cases worldwide

According to the latest real-time data from Johns Hopkins University, as of 20:22 Beijing time on January 25, the total number of confirmed cases in the world was 99.269 million, with the United States leading the way with 25.128,000 cases and India ranking second with 10.668 million cases, accounting for 25.3% and 10.7% of the global total, respectively.
There are more than 1 million cases in 16 countries, from highest to lowest in Brazil, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, Spain, Italy, Turkey, Germany, Colombia, Argentina, Mexico, Poland, South Africa, Iran, Ukraine, Peru.
China, including Hong Kong and Macao, which first reported the outbreak, has been sliding down the list of confirmed cases and is now 82nd.

The United States led the world with 419,000 deaths, accounting for 19.7 percent of the global total.
There were also 11 countries with more than 50,000 cases, followed by Brazil with 217,000 cases, India with 153,000 cases, Mexico with 150,000 cases, the United Kingdom with 98,000 cases, Italy with 85,000 cases, France with 73,000 cases, Russia with 69,000 cases, Iran with 57,000 cases, Spain with 55,000 cases, Germany with 52,000 cases and Colombia with 51,000 cases.

It took nine and a half months to report the first 50 million cases, but only two and a half months to report the second 50 million cases.
Since November 2020, the number of confirmed cases worldwide has risen rapidly.
More than 50 million cases were reported on November 8, more than 60 million on November 25, more than 70 million on December 11, more than 80 million on December 26, more than 90 million on January 10, 2021, and more than 100 million cases are expected on January 26.
After 50 million cases, the increment time per 10 million cases was 17 days, 16 days, 15 days, 15 days and 16 days, respectively.

These are only confirmed cases and deaths reported by countries on their own initiative. Due to the statistical calib, statistical errors and lack of timely and universal nucleic acid testing, the actual number of cases in the world has already exceeded 100 million.
Mainland China, for example, has far more cases than the 89,000 officially reported.

On December 28, 2020, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention announced the results of the national CoviD-19 seroepidemiological survey and analysis. A sample survey design was adopted to select more than 34,000 community population, including more than 22,000 people in Hubei Province and more than 12,000 people in Beijing, Liaoning, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Guangdong and Sichuan provinces.
It was found that the positive rate of new crown antibody was 4.43% in Wuhan, 0.44% in cities outside Wuhan, Hubei, and only 2 cases of antibody were detected in six provinces outside Hubei.

The implications of this epidemiological survey are rich.
The permanent resident population of Wuhan in 2019 is 11.12 million, which means that 496,692 people may be infected with novel coronavirus.
In 2019, the permanent resident population of Hubei Province was 59.27 million, minus the population of Wuhan, the number of other cities and prefectures was 48.058 million, and the corresponding number of people likely to be infected with novel coronavirus was 211,455.
Only 2 cases of antibody were detected in 6 provinces including Beijing and Shanghai, the positive rate was very low, only 0.00017%, and there was no case in at least 4 provinces.

A total of 708,147 people in Hubei Province may have been infected with novel coronavirus, of which 70.14% were in Wuhan.
In fact, the proportion of Wuhan is even higher, January 23, 2020, the city has been closed a little late, about 2 million people who work in Wuhan returned home for the Spring Festival, most of them to other cities and states in the province, antibody positive statistics in Wuhan, Hubei outside the city, rather than the Wuhan area.
There are even more passengers passing through Wuhan, which is the hub of China’s high-speed rail system and is accessible in all directions.
Few people have recovered from the virus in provinces other than Hubei, as 31 provinces and municipalities have launched a first-level emergency response and closed down their cities for the 2020 Spring Festival.

These underlying messages are not at all surprising to professionals, nor should they be surprising to the public.
This is not under-reporting. It happens everywhere.
New York, Russia, Moscow, New Delhi, India, the three most affected areas have organized antibody sampling testing, the positive rate of about 20 percent, much higher than the 4.43 percent in Wuhan.
More than 3 million of Los Angeles County’s 31 million residents have been infected with novel coronavirus, according to estimates by U.S. scientific models.

Due to limited medical resources and mild symptoms, tens of millions of new crown positive cases around the world heal themselves without being counted, diagnosed or treated in time (or without treatment).
A small number of the cases worsen and die, and are not counted in the deaths.

In the United States, the outbreak of the new crown is the most serious, the winter resurgence is also the most serious.
There are four reasons: after Trump lost the election, he incited political protests and many supporters did not wear masks; relatives and friends gathered at Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year’s; indoor activities were significantly more than outdoor activities in winter; and mutated viruses aggravated the epidemic.

The number of confirmed cases reported in the United States jumped from 10 million (November 9, 2020) to 20 million (January 2, 2021) in just 54 days, with an average increase of 185,000 per day.
It only took 22 days to reach 25 million (January 24, 2021), with an average daily increase of 227,000.

The number of deaths reported in the United States has surpassed the number of people killed in World War II, and far exceeds the number of people killed in World War I, Vietnam War, Korea War and 9/11 combined.
Biden, as well as the new director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), David Wallensky, all predict that Covid-19 will kill 500,000 people in the U.S. by mid-February.
California bore the brunt of the winter outbreak in the United States, becoming the first state to have more than 3 million confirmed cases.
In Los Angeles, beds are full, cremators are full.

Virus traceability: the presence of multicenter evidence

On January 14, the World Health Organization (WHO) expert group arrived in Wuhan to carry out a one-month study on the origin of novel coronavirus.
On 15 January, the WHO said that some studies have found cases of CoviD-19 through clinical samples or stored serum samples in 2019, and that WHO will follow up, but may never find case zero of CoviD-19;
On Jan. 22, he added, “It’s certainly too early to tell where the novel coronavirus originated.”

Tracing the source of the virus is extremely difficult and takes a long time. The world must work together to clarify the source and transmission mechanism.
Otherwise, it is impossible to understand why. A few years later, another global outbreak may infect people from animal mutations or from pollutants, resulting in millions of deaths and trillions of dollars in economic losses. The cost is too heavy.

More and more information, evidence and research from countries indicate that the SARS-CoV-2 virus has been distributed in many places around the world in 2019, and there may be more than one zero case, but a multicenter outbreak.

According to la repubblica newspaper reported twice in Italy, the country’s November 10, 2019 a case of a 25-year-old skin inflammation of women with biopsy samples, December 5 case of children’s throat swab samples were checked out will be coronavirus gene sequences, the relevant academic research in the British journal of dermatology, the CDC emerging infectious diseases journal.
Italian researchers also found genetic material from Novel Coronavirus in sewage samples from Milan and Turin on December 18, 2019.

Doctors at a hospital in northern France found that a 42-year-old male patient with pneumonia admitted on December 27, 2019, tested positive for novel coronavirus nucleic acid in a nasopharyngeal swab, according to the study published in the International Journal of Microbiology.
Spain reported its first imported case on 31 January 2020 and its first indigenous case on 25 February, but researchers in the country tested positive for novel coronavirus nucleic acid in a waste water sample collected on 12 March 2019.

On July 2, 2020, the Federal University of Santa Catarina in Brazil reported that genetic material of Novel Coronavirus was detected in wastewater samples collected in the state capital, Florianopolis, on November 27, 2019, about three months before the first case was reported in Brazil.
On January 12, 2021, the Health Department of Espirito Santo, Brazil, announced that antibody against Novel Coronavirus had been detected in serum samples collected in December 2019.

On January 20, 2020, the U.S. CDC confirmed the first case.
However, according to a report published in Clinical Infectious Diseases, American Red Cross collected 39 blood samples in California, Oregon and Washington on December 13, 2019, and found antibodies against novel coronavirus, indicating that at that time novel coronavirus may have been present and infected in the United States.

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