Don’t be too optimistic that the vaccine will have only a 9% chance of widespread use by next April

Recently, there has been a lot of good news about the novel coronavirus vaccine.
But the agency warns that a vaccine may not arrive as soon as the market expects.

Good Judgment, a business forecaster with a global network of forecasters, recently conducted a survey on when covid-19 vaccines could be used on a large scale.

As for “when will there be sufficient doses of a novel coronavirus vaccine, FDA approved, to vaccinate 25 million people in the United States?”
As of May 25, the forecasters think:

By March 31, 2021, there is only a 9% chance of that happening;
By September 30, 2021, the probability is 34%;
By March 31, 2022, the probability is 63%;
There is a 37% chance that it will happen after March 2022.
Remarkably, the agency’s forecasters make their predictions with no inside information, relying only on news reports, scientific data and whatever else is available.
The forecasters come from all over the world and come from a variety of academic backgrounds, including finance, statistics, science and engineering.

Indeed, this week Ken Frazier, chief executive of drug giant Merck, was cautious about a vaccine timetable.

He said the timeline of 12 to 18 months was “too aggressive” and would require “very large” clinical trials, which would take at least many months to complete.

In comparison, the Judgment of Good Judgment should be more cautious than that of fauci, Bill Gates and others.

White House health adviser Dr. David fauci, an infectious disease expert, expressed positive views on the vaccine in an interview with the media on May 27.
If all goes well, a covid-19 vaccine could be ready in November or December, he said.

Bill Gates said in his blog post on April 30 that the development time of covid-19 vaccine is as short as nine months and as long as two years.

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